The past six months had been a very eventful period indeed. A string of bad news seem to flow one after another...let me recall, it was Bali where i was having my vacation with my family back in January this year and then, Malaysia's stock exchange reached the unprecedented historical high on 14th January! However, it was quickly followed by literally a rapid free fall thereafter, taking a 25% dive effectively until yesterday!
First it was the worsen US credit crisis which does not seem to get any better anytime soon, then the record crude oil prices which trigger off global inflation and spark off potential food crisis in certain developing countries. fear of US recession and the global economic slowdown, Myanmar typhoon and the China Sichuan earthquake that took away thousands of lives! As if these are not bad enough, locally in Malaysia the country "decided" to make the headlines too, with first the embarrassing and unprecedented "defeat" of the long standing coalition government (although still in power), then the political uncertainties caused by internal rumbling and power jostling, coupled with the opposition's resistance and attempt to topple the Government! Last but not least, the 40% fuel price hike further pour fuel to fire, causing price escalation across the board, particularly in food, transport and cost of building materials! Property developers and contractors are all in a limbo in relation to the current state of rising cost of building material!
On Wednesday, even the national Stock Exchange trading systems "crumble" under the pressure....trading was down for a full day due to severe technical problem! Many panic traders and investors were caught in a state of shock as the market sentiment across regional and local remain shaky!
What else are there? Well, both of my favourite football teams, Portugal and Holland, lost out in the recent Euro 2008 co-hosted in Switzerland andAustria! The only "consolation" was Germany didn't win!
What could possibly revive some ray of light? Well, perhaps the Olympics in Beijing can re-inject some optimisms in the form of sportmanship and winning mentality..... other than that, there is really not much to look forward to in the year 2008, except for some hopeful miracles...
On the bright side, the current market weakness may have also generated great investment opportunities for those who can either time it right or have the ability to spot and hold on to the jewels....
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Bad News Galore....
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2 comments:
Hi, the streams of bad news made it hard for Malaysians to fully trust in the stock market these days. Even if it is good to buy at such bearish times, but many are still not sure how low it will continue to crash...
Hi Jasmine,
You pointed out rightfully that no one really knows when is the bottom of the cycle....there are truly too many uncertainties both locally and externally at present.
For most retail players, it's really not easy to stomach the fear of uncertainties. Time and time again, fear causes irrational thinking and panic, as what we are witnessing at the moment...
Cautious we shall be but as long as we stick to the fundamentals we should be fine. This applies especially to companies that continue to do well amidst the current uncertainties.
There are risks to take of course but just make sure the overall margin of winning is greater than the margin of losing at the end of the day. In a nutshell, it's a calculated risk...
Anyhow, the risk appetite greatly depends on individual's risk profile. If it ain't your cup of tea, stay away is probably the better alternative for now.
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