The tiger is characterized by being energetic, optimistic, impulsive and restless. 2010 is the year of tiger in the Chinese lunar calendar (4708). People born in this year are believed to be adventurous, sensitive, emotional, risk-taking, smart, and straightforward by nature.
Chinese New Years falls on 14th February 2010. Celebrations start on the eve of the new moon and end 15 days later with the full moon lantern festival.
According to many Feng Shui master, 2010 Year of the Metal Tiger will be a Bad Year! Inside the Tiger, there is Wood, Fire and Earth elements. Here lies the "problem", ie., having no water element is the problem!
So, if the Feng Shui views were to be believed, then expect high volatility in the global stock markets for the year of 2010! Already we have seen glimpses of trouble started off by Dubai, followed by the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). With further tightening of lending by Chinese Government to curb speculative activities, and the imminent raise of interest rates by the U.S. in the near future, risk aversion will likely return to haunt the markets as USD-carry trades being unwinded.
Things can only return to the better unless the fundamental aspects of the real economy such as consumption, exports and employment return to normal.
Last but not least, I would like to wish all Chinese a Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year!
New Roads to Travel,
New Skies to Conquer,,
New Dreams To Live,
New Hopes to Cherish,
It's the Beginning of Yet Another Year,
May it Be a Fulfilling Experience For You!
A Year of Excellent Health, Wealth, Happiness and Wisdom!
Happy 4708!
Saturday, February 13, 2010
The Year of the Tiger, A Year Of Volatility?
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
A Case of Reality Check
2009 was a stellar year for global stocks recovery. As I had written before, it was more hope than factual when global funds decided to take on an optimistic route. 2010 is expected to be a lot tougher, in the sense that what was expected last year must bear fruit this year, in order to sustain the bullish views across global economy and investments.
Last year (until the beginning of this year) we saw massive inflows of funds into emerging markets particularly like China, frenzily mopping up undervalued equity stocks and real estate properties. Property prices in Shanghai, for example, has even surpassed the previous highs made before the 2007 financial crisis! Things were beginning to look more bubblish and speculative than solid fundamental!
Problems began to emerge towards the end of 2009, in places like Dubai where they were not able to service their massive debts, to the point they need to be rescued by Abu Dhabi's sovereign funds.
Next in line comes some of the European countries commonly known as the PIIGS (being Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) who appear increasingly unable to service their respective sovereign debts.
The key question in everyone's mind is that will this snowball into a global issue? Thus turning it into a double dip recession, as what some economists have predicted?
Worries about Europe caused the Euro to hit an eight-month low against the US dollar.
The perception of US Dollar may even turn to become a safe haven! Some analysts are also predicting a bullish rally on US Dollar this year against world major currencies!
