Friday, April 20, 2007

Another Round of Market Turbulence?

Just a few hours after I posted an article on wary investors seeking immediate direction after the recent strong performance of Asian stock markets, Asian markets have finally reacted "positively" to the long awaited "correction". The event was triggered by the strong GDP numbers (11.1%) reported in China, suggesting a potential overheating economy and potential tightening of monetary policy (i.e., increase interest rates). It has been a known effort by the Chinese Government to try to curb the overheating economy but ironically the efforts have born little fruit so far. Yen fell, causing another concern in further unwinding of Yen carry trade across the globe. So, the question beckons is whether this will lead to another round of global market crash similar to the one occurred on Feb 28th? Unlikely, in my view, as the strong GDP numbers reported in China was more or less within expectation (vs consensus of 11%). Moreover, there is still massive liquidity globally awaiting to find a parking lot at global markets! Investors may actually take this event as an excuse to unwind their positions in the short term in order to reduce the risks of a risen market! Barring any other unforeseen circumstances such as further worsening of housing development in US or economic hard landing, the funds should continue to flow. In my view, the Asian stock market correction is a healthy event paving the way for its long term sustainability.

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